Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
