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Just two days prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.