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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to take a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "severe ramifications" during the summer if Putin continued blocking truce discussions, he eventually introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, through his newly presented detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively weaken that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, like giving Putin a part of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about dominating a damaged region of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it no longer serves as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although maintaining in position the presently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv if he later choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their current large number soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal states: "Any extremist belief system and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "establish in law its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from deploying forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not